Journal
Notes on the Ottawa market.
Market letters, buying & selling guides, neighbourhood notes, investor and commercial analysis.
BUYING
A $666 Ottawa condo fee cuts your budget by $47,700
Nov 3, 2026 · 5 min read
CMHC counts half of your condo fee when it qualifies you. For a $110,000 household with 10% down, a $666 fee cuts the price ceiling by $47,731. Every line of the math is below.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa detached sells 16.8% over benchmark, down from 20.4%
Nov 2, 2026 · 4 min read
Detached homes sold for 16.8% over the benchmark in September, down from 20.4% a year ago. Apartments went the other way. Same data, opposite stories, and the arithmetic is below.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
The Bank hiked 25 bps. The 5-year bond moved 85 first
Nov 1, 2026 · 4 min read
The Bank of Canada hiked 25 basis points on Wednesday. The 5-year bond had already done 85 since the last cut. Here is the score on my bet from last Sunday, and what it costs a buyer.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa retail vacancy is 15 buildings, not downtown
Oct 31, 2026 · 4 min read
Fifteen regional malls and power centres hold 79% of Ottawa's vacant retail space. The downtown core holds 3%. The September headlines said the opposite, so I did the multiplication.
Read →INVESTOR
The hike adds $42 a month to a condo loss. The gap is $94,573
Oct 30, 2026 · 5 min read
The Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50%. On the benchmark Ottawa condo it costs a landlord about $42 a month. The break-even bid was already $94,573 below the price. Here is the arithmetic.
Read →SELLING
Bank of Canada hiked. Your list price is target over 97.5%
Oct 29, 2026 · 5 min read
The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% on Wednesday. Here is the worst case for your buyer, the sale to list ratio sellers should price from, and how I will score it in November.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Hintonburg's 11 metre cap covers 83% of N4B, not all of it
Oct 28, 2026 · 4 min read
I told you Hintonburg's residential streets were all capped at 11 metres. I counted every address and 209 of them are not. Here is where they are and what 14.5 metres changes.
Read →BUYING
30-year amortization lifts an Ottawa first-time buyer by $30,700
Oct 27, 2026 · 4 min read
The same $110,000 Ottawa household qualifies for $498,100 on 25 years and $528,800 on 30 years with 10% down. Here is the arithmetic, what the extra five years cost, and the 20% catch.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa new home prices rose 1.0%. Half is last year's dip
Oct 26, 2026 · 4 min read
StatCan says Ottawa new home prices are up 1.0% on a year ago. About half of that is last September's dip dropping out of the comparison, and the arithmetic is below.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
The Bank hasn't moved in a year. The 5-year bond is up 77 bps
Oct 25, 2026 · 4 min read
The Bank of Canada has sat at 2.25% for a year, but the 5-year bond is up 77 basis points. On an Ottawa benchmark home that is $206 a month, and the arithmetic is below.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa office Q3: CBRE sees 10 bps, Altus sees 110
Oct 24, 2026 · 4 min read
Two brokerages measured Ottawa office space for Q3 2026 and got a 10 basis point move and a 110 basis point move. Here is the arithmetic, why they differ, and which number to quote.
Read →INVESTOR
Ontario's rent cap is 1.9%, inflation is 2.5%. The gap costs $151
Oct 23, 2026 · 4 min read
Ontario's rent cap is 1.9% and Ontario inflation is 2.5%. I priced the gap on a $2,000 unit, checked it against one month of vacancy, and made a call on the 2028 guideline.
Read →SELLING
Selling your Ottawa home tax free? Only if you report it
Oct 22, 2026 · 4 min read
Selling your home is tax free only if you tell the CRA. Here is what the report involves, what a missed one costs month by month, and where the exemption shrinks.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Old Ottawa South has no N1 lots, and 1 in 10 is in a flood plain
Oct 21, 2026 · 5 min read
No Old Ottawa South address is zoned N1, 82.6% are N3 or N4, and one in ten sits in the flood plain overlay. Here is what that does to a lot, measured address by address.
Read →BUYING
Ottawa's tax rate is 1.272%, but not on what you pay
Oct 20, 2026 · 4 min read
The City of Ottawa's own estimator puts the 2026 residential rate at 1.272144%, but it applies to assessed value, not price. Here is what that does to a $110,000 household.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa started 914 homes in September. My August call, scored
Oct 18, 2026 · 4 min read
Ottawa started 914 homes in September and the permit pool rose to 4,329. Both of my October 4 conditions held, but the story changed. The arithmetic, and what I got wrong.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa industrial: Q3 absorption fell to 40,000 sf
Oct 17, 2026 · 4 min read
CBRE's Q3 Ottawa industrial absorption fell to 40,000 sf from 156,132 in Q2, and availability rose to 4.2%. Here is the arithmetic, a recheck of my August call, and what I'm watching.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa landlords: the Sept 21 RTA changes, priced in dollars
Oct 16, 2026 · 5 min read
Ontario's new tenancy rules took effect September 21. The N4 clock fell from 14 days to 7, and an N12 given 120 days out skips the compensation month. Here is what each is worth on a $2,000 unit.
Read →SELLING
Selling in Ottawa: why the 5-year mortgage rule rarely helps
Oct 15, 2026 · 4 min read
Sellers keep telling me they can break their mortgage for three months of interest after five years. The statute says something narrower. Here is who qualifies, and how to shrink the penalty if you do not.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Ottawa Centre sank to 27.6% in September. Now what for the Glebe?
Oct 14, 2026 · 4 min read
Ottawa Centre's sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped 12 points since July. I scored my July Glebe post against the September OREB data, and the answer depends on whether you own a condo or a house.
Read →BUYING
Ottawa's $110,000 household now buys $561,000, not $577,500
Oct 13, 2026 · 4 min read
In May a $110,000 household could buy about $577,500 in Ottawa. Rerun with a higher qualifying rate and a tax line I got wrong, it is about $561,400. Every step shown.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's September inventory passed its 2016 ceiling. Barely.
Oct 11, 2026 · 4 min read
September's 4.8 months of inventory is above September 2016's 4.6. Townhouses and apartments pushed Ottawa over the line, single family held it back. The arithmetic and the score on two earlier calls.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa office vacancy: 2024 said under 10%, CBRE says 14.9%
Oct 10, 2026 · 4 min read
A 2024 panel forecast Ottawa office vacancy under 10% by 2026 to 2027. CBRE's Q3 2026 figure is 14.9%. Here is the scoreboard, the arithmetic, and a recheck of my own July call.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa condos are 0.6% vacant and still lose $419 a month
Oct 9, 2026 · 5 min read
CMHC puts Ottawa rental condo vacancy at 0.6%. I paired it with OREB's September benchmark price and reran my June condo post. The unit still loses money. Here is every line.
Read →SELLING
1,600 Ottawa listings quit in September. Price against them.
Oct 8, 2026 · 4 min read
Third month running that more Ottawa listings quit than sold. The September arithmetic, whether the quitters came back, and how my 2026 sales call holds up.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
I said Westboro's train opens early 2027. I was wrong.
Oct 7, 2026 · 4 min read
I told you Westboro's station would open early 2027. The city's schedule already said Q3 2027, then July's flood hit. Here is the corrected timeline and what September's OREB data did to my August call.
Read →BUYING
One dollar under 10% down costs an Ottawa buyer $5,886
Oct 6, 2026 · 4 min read
Put 10% down on Ottawa's $726,700 single-family benchmark and the premium is 3.10%. One dollar less and it is 4.00%. That dollar costs $5,886, before PST.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's August looked like 2016. Only townhouses are looser.
Oct 5, 2026 · 4 min read
August's 4.5 months of inventory matches August 2016's 4.6. Backed out by segment, single-family and apartments are tighter than 2016. Townhouses carry about a month of extra supply.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa started 1,235 homes in August. The permit pool fell 18%
Oct 4, 2026 · 4 min read
Ottawa started 1,235 homes in August, 3.25 times last year. The permits waiting behind them fell 17.8 percent. Here is the arithmetic, and what I cannot yet reconcile with my own August post.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa industrial rent: $16.71 quoted, about $25 paid
Oct 3, 2026 · 4 min read
CBRE has Ottawa industrial net rent at $16.71 a foot. Five real listings add about $8 of additional rent on top. Here is the monthly math on 4,000 feet, and what to ask first.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa's old apartments get a forced 0.7% rent cut Dec 31
Oct 2, 2026 · 4 min read
Tenant letters started Oct 1. Ottawa's tax cut on older apartment buildings becomes a mandatory 0.7% rent cut on Dec 31. Here is the landlord math, who it hits, and what to check before buying a seven plus building.
Read →SELLING
Sell within a year of buying? The CRA flip rule in Ottawa terms
Oct 1, 2026 · 4 min read
Sell within 365 days of buying and the CRA treats your profit as income, not a capital gain. With Ottawa townhouses and apartments underwater, here is who actually gets caught.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Barrhaven's Greenbank road: Phase 1 is only 15% of the job
Sep 30, 2026 · 4 min read
In August I said Greenbank's first phase included the Jock River bridge. It does not. The city prices Phase 1 at $58M of a $380M project, about 15 per cent.
Read →BUYING
Parent on title? Your Ottawa land transfer refund shrinks
Sep 29, 2026 · 4 min read
More first-time buyers now take a joint mortgage, often with a parent. In Ontario, a parent on title cuts the land transfer tax refund by the parent's share. On an average Ottawa sale that is $2,000.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
OREB says Ottawa prices rose 1%. Teranet says they fell 2%.
Sep 28, 2026 · 5 min read
OREB's August benchmark is up 1% year over year. The Teranet-National Bank index says Ottawa-Gatineau fell more than 2% over the same year. Same city, same month, opposite signs, and there's a real reason why.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
The bond didn't move much. Fixed rates did anyway.
Sep 27, 2026 · 4 min read
The five-year Government of Canada bond moved four basis points in two weeks. The best five-year fixed mortgage rate moved twenty-five. That gap, not the bond, is this week's actual story for an Ottawa buyer.
Read →COMMERCIAL
An Ottawa office condo lists at $450 a foot. The fee doesn't.
Sep 26, 2026 · 4 min read
Six Ottawa office and industrial condo units are on the market this week, priced $115 to $525 a foot. None discloses a condo fee. Here is how to find it before you waive conditions.
Read →INVESTOR
Your legal basement suite still can't be an Airbnb
Sep 25, 2026 · 4 min read
A lot of investment advice says you can Airbnb a basement suite if you live upstairs. Ottawa's by-law defines its terms in a way that says otherwise, and the actual fix isn't what you'd expect.
Read →SELLING
Ottawa inventory jumped 2.5x any August on record. Price for it.
Sep 24, 2026 · 4 min read
OREB's own report says August's inventory jump had no precedent in ten years. The average sale-to-list ratio barely moved. Here's what that gap means for how you price a listing this week.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Orléans LRT: the earliest honest opening date is November
Sep 23, 2026 · 5 min read
Pre-trial running in early October, then 21 days of trial, then up to 10 days of certification. Add it up and the earliest date a passenger boards in Orléans is November 3.
Read →BUYING
Ottawa's first-time buyer refund covered 82% in 2017. Now 39%.
Sep 22, 2026 · 5 min read
The refund is still $4,000. Ottawa's average price went from $420,335 to $688,253. Here is what that does to the cheque a first-time buyer writes on closing day.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Gas prices cooled in August. Inflation held at 3% anyway.
Sep 21, 2026 · 5 min read
Gasoline inflation fell from 25.7% to 22.8% in August. The headline held at 3.0% because everything else picked up the slack. That is the spillover the Bank of Canada said it was watching for.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
A third of Ottawa's 2026 sales shortfall landed in August
Sep 20, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa's year-to-date sales gap widened from 5.2% to 6.9% in a single month. Here is what that is worth in actual houses, and why the price numbers did not move.
Read →COMMERCIAL
The $1M ceiling to buy your Ottawa building is from 2015
Sep 19, 2026 · 5 min read
The federal loan that helps a small business buy its own building caps out at $1,000,000. That number was set in 2015. At Ottawa industrial prices, here is what it no longer reaches.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa's balanced vacancy band is 2% to 4%, and we're at 3%
Sep 18, 2026 · 5 min read
CMHC just rebuilt the definition of a balanced rental market. Ottawa's band runs 2% to 4%, and our vacancy rate sits at exactly 3%. Here is what the midpoint costs you.
Read →SELLING
105 days left in 2026. The median Ottawa sale needs 96.
Sep 17, 2026 · 5 min read
There are 105 days between today and December 31. A median Ottawa house listed today on a sixty day close needs 96 of them. Here is the calendar math, run backwards.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
317 Kanata homes ring the old golf course. I measured it.
Sep 16, 2026 · 5 min read
The old Kanata golf course is zoned for housing and the soil results are in. I measured how many homes sit on its edge, and put the mercury numbers on a scale.
Read →BUYING
Fixed rates jumped. The variable discount is now 79 points.
Sep 15, 2026 · 5 min read
The five-year Government of Canada yield jumped 21 basis points in four days and lenders repriced fixed mortgages. The variable discount is now 79 points. It takes three Bank of Canada hikes to erase it.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa needs to triple its housing starts. Toronto needs 50%.
Sep 14, 2026 · 5 min read
CMHC's Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report landed Thursday. Ottawa needs 22,000 to 27,000 more housing starts a year. That shortfall is bigger than Toronto's, and it widened while Toronto's shrank.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa Centre has 7 months of inventory. Suburb West has 3.6.
Sep 13, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa's August release reads balanced citywide: 47.3 per cent, 4.5 months of inventory. Split it into the six submarkets OREB reports and the spread is 3.4 months. Two of the six are buyers' markets.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa development charges: $36.03 a foot, due on permit day
Sep 12, 2026 · 5 min read
A new store in Ottawa owes $36.03 a square foot in development charges before the doors open. Industrial pays $15.80. Residential got a deferral and a discount. Commercial got neither.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa's four-unit rule is a ratio. N1 needs 500 square metres
Sep 11, 2026 · 5 min read
Everyone repeats four units as of right. The by-law actually says 0.8 per 100 square metres of lot area in N1. A 40 foot lot gets two, and the row is still under appeal.
Read →SELLING
I mapped Ottawa's flood plain. 2,805 addresses are in it.
Sep 10, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa's zoning by-law prohibits development inside the Flood Plain Overlay. I measured every municipal address in the city against it. Here is where the 2,805 are, and what one does to a sale.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Half of Manotick is on septic. I counted the pipes.
Sep 9, 2026 · 5 min read
Manotick's servicing is a coin flip, street by street. I ran the City's own water and sewer mains against 3,376 village addresses. Here is who has pipe and who never will.
Read →BUYING
Ottawa's school boundary overhaul was cancelled. Check the map.
Sep 8, 2026 · 5 min read
The map that would have moved 11,000 Ottawa kids was cancelled last October. Listings never got the memo. What actually changed on September 1, and the ten-minute check before you write an offer.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa sold 1,002 homes in August. About 1,300 listings quit.
Sep 6, 2026 · 5 min read
OREB's August release: 1,002 sales, the lowest August since 2016. Rebuild the inventory math and about 1,300 listings left unsold, the second straight month exits beat sales. This time OREB said so too.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa office rent is $17.17 a foot. You will pay $35.22.
Sep 5, 2026 · 5 min read
Colliers has Ottawa office asking $17.17 net and $35.22 gross. The $18.05 in between is additional rent. It is 51% of the cheque, it resets every January, and almost nobody negotiates it.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa rentals have to beat 6.6%, not 4.5%. Almost none do
Sep 4, 2026 · 5 min read
Rental money in Ottawa costs 4.5% to 5.5%. Over 25 years that is a 6.6% to 7.3% mortgage constant, and your cap rate has to beat it times your leverage. Almost nothing residential does.
Read →SELLING
Your Ottawa buyer has to sell first. Underwrite their listing.
Sep 3, 2026 · 5 min read
The sale-of-property condition is back in Ottawa offers. Accept one and your sale depends on a listing you don't control. How to read that listing, and what the escape clause actually does.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Hintonburg's zoning already changed. It was 2020
Sep 2, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa rewrote its zoning map and Hintonburg came out with new letters and the same rules. The four-unit appeal everyone is watching is about a cap this neighbourhood never had.
Read →BUYING
Ottawa buyers can't bridge a house that hasn't sold
Sep 1, 2026 · 5 min read
Every move-up seller says the same thing: we'll buy first and bridge it. Bridge financing does not exist until your sale is firm. That one word decides the whole sequence.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's arrears are forecast to fall. Toronto's climb 30%.
Aug 31, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa's supply is 44.5% above normal, which sounds like distress until you read the arrears table. CMHC has Ottawa's delinquency rate falling to 0.13% by late 2026, the biggest drop of eight major markets.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ontario's inflation is 2.0%. The rate is set for Canada's 3.0%
Aug 30, 2026 · 5 min read
Canada's July inflation came in at 3.0% and that is a gasoline number. Ontario printed 2.0%, the lowest in the country, dragged down by falling housing costs. Wednesday's rate ignores the difference.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa still taxes your building on what it was worth in 2016
Aug 29, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa's 2026 office tax ratio is 2.39 and industrial is 2.26. Both get applied to values struck on January 1, 2016. Ten years of divergence, one frozen assessment.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa turnover is 1.8x Toronto's. That used to be good news
Aug 28, 2026 · 5 min read
CMHC's turnover table says 16.6% of Ottawa rentals change tenants every year, 1.8 times Toronto's rate. Vacancy decontrol made that an asset for fifteen years. In 2026 it runs the other way.
Read →SELLING
Your Ottawa buyer walked. The deposit is not yours yet.
Aug 27, 2026 · 5 min read
A dead deal does not put the deposit back in anyone's pocket. In Ontario it takes a signed mutual release or a court order, and the fast signature is not always the cheap one.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Old Ottawa South has two markets. Carleton splits them.
Aug 26, 2026 · 5 min read
Vacancy is highest near post-secondary campuses and Carleton is running a $32 million deficit. Old Ottawa South has two housing markets and they are moving in opposite directions.
Read →BUYING
The bond market just shrank what Ottawa buyers can borrow
Aug 25, 2026 · 5 min read
The five-year bond yield hit a twelve-month high and lenders raised fixed rates. Your monthly payment moved $35. Your approval moved $7,500. Those are not the same number.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa needs a 9% autumn just to break even on 2026
Aug 24, 2026 · 5 min read
OREB's July headline was the best July in five years. The line underneath says Ottawa is 5.2% behind on the year, and closing that gap needs a 9% autumn five months running.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Canada's supply is 1.5% above normal. Ottawa's is 44.5%.
Aug 23, 2026 · 6 min read
CREA's July release says national supply is 1.5% above its long run normal. OREB says Ottawa is 44.5% above. Same month, same measure. Canada took the price cut and we took the inventory instead.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa's Bay building sold for $65 a foot. Rent is $53.
Aug 22, 2026 · 5 min read
The former Hudson's Bay flagship on Rideau Street sold for $65 a square foot. Downtown Ottawa retail asks $53.22 a foot in annual rent. Those two numbers explain the whole market.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa's MLI Select rent cap is $1,535. Market is $1,926
Aug 21, 2026 · 5 min read
CMHC's MLI Select affordability test for Ottawa runs off a 2019 median renter income of $61,400. That puts the rent ceiling at $1,535 while the average two bedroom rents for $1,926. Here is what the gap costs.
Read →SELLING
Your Ottawa listing expired. The holdover clause didn't.
Aug 20, 2026 · 5 min read
About 1,500 Ottawa listings left the market unsold in July. Every one of them started a holdover clock, and the clause that stops you paying commission twice only works if you relist with a brokerage.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Lansdowne is a job site until 2030. Price the Glebe for it.
Aug 19, 2026 · 5 min read
Two tower cranes are up at Lansdowne and the build runs to late 2030. Crews can work until 10 pm, seven days a week. Here is what that does to a Glebe listing and how to price around it.
Read →BUYING
Ottawa's best buy this fall already failed to sell once
Aug 18, 2026 · 5 min read
Only about 18% of the Ottawa homes available in July actually sold. The rest are still owned by people who wanted out. That is the inventory worth your time this fall.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
More Ottawa listings quit the market in July than sold in it
Aug 17, 2026 · 5 min read
OREB's July ratio improved to 52.4% and the headlines called it better absorption. Rebuild it from the published numbers and about 1,500 Ottawa listings left the market without selling, more than actually sold.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
3.5 months of inventory is tight for Canada. Not for Ottawa.
Aug 16, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa has less inventory than Canada and far more than it should. Measured against our own long-run normal we are 46% oversupplied, and the pile is leftover spring listings that never cleared.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa office leases got 23 months longer. That is the deal.
Aug 15, 2026 · 6 min read
Ottawa office vacancy hit 15.0% and everyone called it tenant leverage. The average new lease also went from 38 months to 61. That is the real price.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa killed parking minimums. Your suite already had none
Aug 14, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa scrapped minimum parking rates in the new zoning by-law. For secondary suites the minimum was already zero. Here is where it actually changes your numbers, and the transition rule nobody quotes.
Read →SELLING
Ottawa's average price is $683,308. Don't price off it.
Aug 13, 2026 · 5 min read
OREB's July release contains three different Ottawa home prices and they disagree. The average fell 1.6%, the median held, the benchmark slipped 0.5%. Only one of them belongs in your list price.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Westboro's train is almost here. So are 1,441 new units.
Aug 12, 2026 · 5 min read
Three Westboro proposals add up to 1,441 units, and the biggest one needs no council vote. Ottawa's apartment benchmark is down 5.2 per cent. Here's how to price around that.
Read →BUYING
The appraisal gap nobody warns Ottawa condo buyers about
Aug 11, 2026 · 6 min read
Ottawa apartments are down 5.2% in a year and lenders noticed. If the appraisal lands under your purchase price, the shortfall is yours in cash. Here is what it costs.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
The rate cut Ottawa buyers are waiting for isn't coming
Aug 10, 2026 · 5 min read
Markets are no longer pricing a Bank of Canada cut. They're pricing a hike. Here's what a quarter point is actually worth on an Ottawa mortgage, and why the price move already on the table beats it.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa townhouses: tightest inventory, weakest prices
Aug 9, 2026 · 5 min read
Townhouses now carry less inventory than detached homes in Ottawa and the worst price performance in the city. That combination is not a tightening market. It's withdrawn listings waiting for September.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa's new hospital is a 2033 story. Medical space isn't.
Aug 8, 2026 · 5 min read
The new Civic campus completes around 2033-34. Medical construction runs $475 to $650 a foot against $170 to $240 for a strip plaza. Hospital adjacency today buys you eight years of carry.
Read →INVESTOR
Ontario's 2027 rent cap is 1.9%. Ottawa's market cap is lower
Aug 7, 2026 · 6 min read
Ontario set the 2027 rent guideline at 1.9%. In Ottawa that is not the binding constraint. New-build vacancy is 6.7% and asking rents are down 4% off peak.
Read →SELLING
The Ottawa fall market will not save your unsold listing
Aug 6, 2026 · 5 min read
Every unsold Ottawa seller is being told to hang on for September. Last fall sales dropped 17% from July while active listings climbed and months of inventory hit 4.0. The fall market arrives as inventory, not buyers.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Barrhaven is building a downtown around a train nobody funded
Aug 5, 2026 · 5 min read
Barrhaven's LRT extension is fully designed and priced at $4 billion. The city is buying land for a downtown built around a station that has no funding. Here's what is actually getting built, and what to pay for it.
Read →BUYING
Ottawa new builds: $130K in HST relief, most of it not law
Aug 4, 2026 · 5 min read
Sales centres are quoting $130,000 in HST relief on new builds. Only $50,000 of it is actually law, and on a $500,000 Ottawa condo the real number is $25,000. Here is what you can bank and what you cannot.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa is finishing more homes than it's starting
Aug 2, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa completed more homes in the first half of 2026 than it started. Eighty-four per cent of what's still under construction is apartments. The comfortable inventory buyers are enjoying right now was ordered years ago, and the reorder rate is falling.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa is building industrial. None of it is for you.
Aug 1, 2026 · 6 min read
Ottawa is the only industrial market in Canada building at more than 3% of inventory. The pipeline is 95.5% pre-leased before it opens. If you need 5,000 square feet, none of that helps you.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa's vacant unit tax: the 2026 deadline was Canada Day
Jul 31, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa taxes a home that sits empty more than 184 days a year. Do the arithmetic and the last safe day to fill a unit for 2026 was July 1. Here's what it costs.
Read →SELLING
Firm to close: where Ottawa home sales actually fall apart
Jul 30, 2026 · 5 min read
The offer firmed and everyone exhaled. That's the wrong moment to stop paying attention. Almost every deal I've seen go sideways in Ottawa went sideways after firm, not before.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Orléans has a finished train and no opening date
Jul 29, 2026 · 5 min read
Twelve and a half kilometres of track, five finished stations, and as of mid-July no timeline to open any of it. Here's what that's actually worth when you're bidding on a house in the east end.
Read →BUYING
New build in Ottawa? You have 45 days to protect your deposit
Jul 28, 2026 · 6 min read
A rule that took effect on April 1 puts a 45-day clock on every new freehold purchase agreement in Ontario. Nobody at the sales centre starts it for you, and the thing on the line is your deposit protection.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's 2021 buyers are renewing into 4% money right now
Jul 27, 2026 · 5 min read
June 2021 was the busiest month Ottawa has had this decade. Those five-year mortgages mature now, at roughly double the rate. Here's what the payment actually does, and why the appreciation people are counting on isn't there.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's benchmark home has gained 2.7% in five years
Jul 26, 2026 · 5 min read
Everyone quotes the average price. The number worth your time is two columns over, at the back of the HPI table. Ottawa's benchmark home is up 2.7% in five years, and that reframes almost every decision people are agonizing over right now.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa office vacancy fell downtown. Here's the catch.
Jul 25, 2026 · 5 min read
Downtown office vacancy dropped more than a full point last quarter. Two buildings leaving the leasing inventory did most of the work. The real news is buried further down the report.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa rents are softening in 2026: a reality check for small landlords
Jul 24, 2026 · 4 min read
Vacancy is up, two-thirds of buildings are offering incentives, and asking rents have been sliding since spring. The rent-always-goes-up bet just broke. Here's what that changes if you own a door or two.
Read →SELLING
The highest offer isn't always the best one: how Ottawa sellers should read what's on the table
Jul 23, 2026 · 4 min read
Two offers on the same townhouse, $9,000 apart. My clients took the lower one and never regretted it. In a one-offer-at-a-time market, the number on page one is the least informative thing in the document. Here's how to read the rest.
Read →BUYING
Price is the last lever: an Ottawa buyer's negotiation playbook
Jul 21, 2026 · 5 min read
Everyone thinks negotiating means grinding the price. In a market where correctly priced homes still fetch 98.5% of ask, price is the last lever. Here's where the real negotiation happens, segment by segment.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
The national market just turned a corner. Ottawa didn't need one.
Jul 20, 2026 · 4 min read
CREA's June release landed the same morning as the Bank's hold and got buried. National sales are climbing and prices have stopped falling. Ottawa never fell. Here's what the gap between those two facts means for our fall market.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
After the hold: the seven-week window that sets up Ottawa's fall market
Jul 19, 2026 · 4 min read
The Bank held at 2.25% on Wednesday, its sixth straight pass. Inside the release: the first mildly encouraging thing the Bank has said about housing in a while, and a calendar quirk that gives Ottawa buyers and sellers a seven-week head start on the fall market.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa's Commercial Market Is Splitting in Two: Soft Office, Tight Industrial, and Where the Real Deals Are
Jul 18, 2026 · 5 min read
The federal plan to shed half its office space collided with a four-day return-to-office mandate, and Ottawa's commercial market is caught in the whiplash. Office tenants suddenly have leverage. Industrial tenants have the opposite problem.
Read →INVESTOR
The fourplex that isn't: Ottawa's four-unit zoning is still under appeal
Jul 17, 2026 · 5 min read
Everyone is repeating the line about four units on every serviced lot. The provision is sitting at the Ontario Land Tribunal and is not in force. Here's what you can actually build, and what that means if you already paid a fourplex premium for the land.
Read →SELLING
Your listing isn't selling. In a 22-day market, that's a price problem.
Jul 16, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa's median days on market in June was 22 days, and the sale-to-list ratio held at 98.5%, unchanged from last year. Correctly priced homes are still clearing in three weeks. So if yours is sitting at day 40, you're not waiting out a slow market. You're outside it. Here's what to actually do about it.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Kanata North is bigger than I told you in May
Jul 15, 2026 · 5 min read
In May I wrote that Kanata North employs roughly 24,000 people. The KNBA's new report says 30,978 direct jobs and $17.9 billion in output. Meanwhile Ottawa Suburb West is quietly the tightest submarket in the city. Here's what connects the two.
Read →BUYING
Buying your first Ottawa condo in 2026: the soft market and the document that decides it
Jul 14, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa's condo segment is the softest in the city right now, and for once that is the buyer's advantage rather than a warning. Apartments are off about 6% year over year with 5.3 months of supply, the most buyer-friendly reading in Ottawa. Here is how to shop your first one, and why the status certificate is the document that actually decides the deal.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's June Market: One Average Price, Three Different Stories
Jul 13, 2026 · 4 min read
The average sale price ticked up in June. The market underneath it did not. A look at Ottawa's three-speed market before Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
What Wednesday's rate decision actually does to your Ottawa mortgage
Jul 12, 2026 · 4 min read
The Bank holds again Wednesday, and most buyers are watching the wrong number. Your fixed rate is set in the bond market, not the Bank's boardroom. Here's what the July 15 decision actually changes for Ottawa, and what it doesn't.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Why RTO4 could put a floor under Ottawa's office vacancy
Jul 11, 2026 · 4 min read
For five years the federal government did everything it could to shed office space in Ottawa. Then RTO4 landed on July 6, and the demand math flipped overnight.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa student rentals in 2026: the per-door math and the by-law trap
Jul 10, 2026 · 5 min read
Every July a client sends me a five bedroom house near uOttawa and a spreadsheet: five rooms, $800 each, a cap rate that looks too good. The spreadsheet is usually where the trouble starts. Here's the real math.
Read →SELLING
The sale-to-list ratio: how to actually price your Ottawa home
Jul 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Sellers obsess over the average sale price. The number that should actually set your list price is the sale-to-list ratio, and in June it held at 98.5% across Ottawa. That citywide figure hides three very different markets. Here's how to use it to price your home.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Why the Glebe is up 10.3% while Ottawa cools
Jul 8, 2026 · 5 min read
OREB says stop reading citywide headlines and look local. The Glebe proves the point: it's up 10.3% year over year while Ottawa's benchmark slipped. Here's what's really happening in Ottawa's canal-side classic in 2026.
Read →BUYING
The first-time buyer GST rebate: what it's worth in Ottawa
Jul 7, 2026 · 5 min read
The feds made the GST disappear on new homes for first-time buyers, up to $50,000 back. In Ottawa, where most new-build product sits under $1 million, that's usually the full ride. The catch: it does nothing for resale.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Where Ottawa's Market Sits Before the July 15 Rate Decision
Jul 6, 2026 · 5 min read
Sales are down year over year, inventory is up, and single-family homes are holding while condos soften. With the Bank of Canada set to decide on July 15, here's an honest read on where Ottawa's market actually sits.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
What's selling fast in Ottawa this July, what's sitting stale
Jul 5, 2026 · 5 min read
Watch the OREB headline and you get the tidy version. Sit in the actual pipeline this July and you see two Ottawa markets — one clearing in two weeks, one sitting 60 days.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's sales-to-new-listings ratio — the summer signal to watch
Jul 5, 2026 · 5 min read
Everyone quotes Ottawa's average sale price. The sales-to-new-listings ratio does more forecasting work — and Ottawa's ~48% reading hides two very different sub-markets.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Office-to-residential conversions: can they fix downtown Ottawa?
Jul 4, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa is the only Canadian office market still moving the wrong way, and the federal government is about to hand back more space. Conversions are everyone's favourite fix. Here's the actual math.
Read →INVESTOR
The 2.1% problem: what Ottawa landlords can charge in 2026
Jul 3, 2026 · 4 min read
Ontario capped 2026 rent increases at 2.1%, the lowest in four years. Meanwhile, Ottawa asking rents have been sliding since mid-2025. Here's the landlord math that actually matters.
Read →SELLING
Selling your Ottawa home in mid-summer: the July playbook
Jul 2, 2026 · 5 min read
Conventional wisdom says don't list in July. Mostly right, sometimes expensively wrong. Here's who should sell into Ottawa's mid-summer market, who should wait for September, and the playbook if you can't wait.
Read →BUYING
Stacking the FHSA and HBP for your Ottawa down payment
Jun 30, 2026 · 5 min read
The FHSA and HBP aren't either-or. Stacked, an Ottawa couple can assemble up to $200,000 of tax-advantaged down payment, and the 2026 repayment rules just got friendlier. Here's the playbook.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's mid-2026 market: what to watch into summer
Jun 29, 2026 · 5 min read
We're halfway through 2026 and the year-to-date numbers tell a cleaner story than any single month. Fewer sales, more inventory, prices holding. Here's what that means heading into summer.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa housing 2026: a mid-year report card
Jun 28, 2026 · 4 min read
We're at the halfway mark of 2026. Prices are roughly flat, sales are softer, and inventory is comfortable. Here's the honest scorecard and what I'm watching into the back half of the year.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Tenant inducements: the hidden math in Ottawa leases
Jun 27, 2026 · 5 min read
The face rent on a commercial lease is the number that tells you the least. In a 14.3% vacancy office market, the inducements are where the real negotiation lives.
Read →INVESTOR
Ottawa condo investing in 2026: a reality check
Jun 26, 2026 · 5 min read
The condo is the property most often pitched to first-time Ottawa investors, and the one I most often talk people out of. Here's the 2026 math, with a worked cash-flow example.
Read →SELLING
Selling a tenant-occupied home in Ontario: the 2026 rules
Jun 25, 2026 · 5 min read
Most owners think a tenant kills the sale. It doesn't, but the rules changed in late 2025. Here's how selling a tenant-occupied Ottawa home actually works in 2026, and what it costs.
Read →COMMERCIAL
Retail vs office vs industrial: which Ottawa segment is moving
Jun 22, 2026 · 4 min read
If you have capital to deploy into Ottawa commercial real estate in 2026, the segment choice matters more than the property choice. Here's the head-to-head comparison I walk investor clients through.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa real estate market update — Q2 2026
Jun 18, 2026 · 3 min read
If you've been refreshing OREB releases the way I do, the headline of Q2 2026 is simple: balanced, not boring. May sales hit 1,616 units across the OREB territory, down 10.6% from a year earlier, while the average sale price came in at $721…
Read →COMMERCIAL
Ottawa commercial market overview Q2 2026
Jun 17, 2026 · 3 min read
Ottawa's commercial real estate market in 2026 isn't one market — it's three, moving in three different directions. Office is challenged. Industrial is tight. Retail is rebounding from a long valley.
Read →SELLING
Ontario seller disclosure rules every owner should know
Jun 15, 2026 · 4 min read
Ontario's seller disclosure rules are not what most homeowners think they are. There's no general "duty to disclose everything" — but there are specific things you absolutely must disclose, and lying or hiding them creates liability that ca…
Read →MARKET UPDATES
How Bank of Canada rate moves are shaping Ottawa real estate
Jun 12, 2026 · 3 min read
The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10, 2026. That's the fifth consecutive hold — January, March, April, and now June. The Bank Rate sits at 2.5%, deposit rate at 2.20%.
Read →INVESTOR
Multi-unit conversions: the basement secondary suite math
Jun 11, 2026 · 4 min read
The strongest leverage available to small-scale real estate investors in Ottawa right now is the legal basement secondary suite.
Read →BUYING
Home inspection: the 12 things to look for in Ottawa homes
Jun 9, 2026 · 3 min read
Ottawa's housing stock spans pre-Confederation stone homes in the village of Manotick, post-war bungalows in Carlington, 1980s vinyl-sided detached in Kanata, and brand-new builds in Riverside South.
Read →SELLING
Selling in winter vs spring in Ottawa: trade-offs
Jun 6, 2026 · 3 min read
Every November I get the same question: "Should we list now or wait until spring?" The answer is more nuanced than the conventional wisdom that "spring is always best."
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Manotick neighbourhood guide: village living on the Rideau
Jun 4, 2026 · 3 min read
Manotick is a village of about 5,500 within the City of Ottawa, located 30 minutes south of downtown along the Rideau River. The neighbourhood is defined by the village core, the river, and the newer Mahogany community to the south.
Read →BUYING
Pre-approval vs pre-qualification: what Ottawa lenders actually mean
Jun 2, 2026 · 3 min read
I had a client lose a Westboro semi last month because they brought a "pre-approval" to the offer table that was actually a pre-qualification.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Hintonburg neighbourhood guide: art, infill, and Wellington West
Jun 1, 2026 · 3 min read
If Westboro is what Hintonburg will be in ten years, Hintonburg in 2026 is the most interesting transitional neighbourhood in the city.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Old Ottawa South neighbourhood guide: Bank, Brewer, and Carleton
May 29, 2026 · 3 min read
Old Ottawa South sits south of The Glebe, bordered by the Rideau River on three sides. The neighbourhood is centred on the Bank Street south commercial strip, anchored by Hopewell Avenue Public School and Brewer Park, and shaped by Carleton…
Read →INVESTOR
Short-term rental rules in Ottawa: what's legal, what isn't
May 27, 2026 · 4 min read
The City of Ottawa's Short-Term Rental By-law (By-law No. 2021-104) substantially restricted who can run an Airbnb or VRBO in Ottawa. Many "investment" properties marketed as STR opportunities in 2026 are not actually legal.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
The Glebe neighbourhood guide: Edwardian homes and Lansdowne
May 25, 2026 · 3 min read
The Glebe is Ottawa's longest-running premium walkable neighbourhood. Bank Street is the spine, Lansdowne is the anchor, the Rideau Canal forms the eastern boundary, and the housing stock is dominated by Edwardian and early-20th-century det…
Read →MARKET UPDATES
5-year price trends across Ottawa neighbourhoods
May 22, 2026 · 2 min read
Looking back from June 2026, Ottawa real estate has had three distinct chapters since 2021: the COVID-era surge through early 2022, the 2022–2024 rate shock and correction, and the 2025–2026 plateau.
Read →BUYING
Closing costs in Ontario explained, line by line
May 20, 2026 · 3 min read
If you're buying in Ottawa, "closing costs" is the line that ambushes more first-time buyers than any other. Let me walk through every cost, what it actually pays for, and what you'll see on a $700,000 purchase.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Westboro neighbourhood guide: urbanist living west of Tunney's
May 19, 2026 · 3 min read
Westboro has become the model of Ottawa's urbanist housing pivot. Wellington West is a genuine walkable commercial strip, Confederation Line LRT puts the area 12 minutes from downtown, and infill density has reshaped what the housing stock…
Read →SELLING
Pricing strategy in a shifting market
May 18, 2026 · 3 min read
Pricing a home isn't about what you want for it. It's a tactical decision about how to use the asking price to drive the outcome. In Ottawa's 2026 balanced market, the wrong strategy can cost you 5% or more on final sale price.
Read →BUYING
How much home can you afford in Ottawa in 2026?
May 15, 2026 · 3 min read
The affordability question gets asked at every coffee, and the answer is always: it depends. But the inputs are not mysterious. Let me walk through how an Ottawa lender actually decides what you can borrow in 2026, with real numbers.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Barrhaven neighbourhood guide: Ottawa's south-end suburb
May 13, 2026 · 3 min read
Barrhaven now houses about 95,000 people and continues to expand south and west. It's Ottawa's quintessential family suburb — newer construction, large lots in some pockets, strong schools, and the south-end commute that LRT Stage 2 will ev…
Read →INVESTOR
ROI on Ottawa rentals in 2026: where the cap rates are
May 11, 2026 · 4 min read
Most "investment property" content on the internet sells the dream. Let me walk through the actual cap rates I'm seeing on Ottawa deals in 2026, which property types work and which don't, and where buyers should focus.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Orleans neighbourhood guide: the francophone east end
May 10, 2026 · 3 min read
Orleans is Ottawa's largest east-end community, with a population around 110,000 and a distinct francophone heritage. It's been a steady family suburb for decades, and the 2026 market continues to reward that consistency.
Read →BUYING
First-time home buyer's complete guide to Ottawa
May 8, 2026 · 3 min read
Buying your first home in Ottawa in 2026 is easier than it was in 2022 in some ways — there's actual inventory, conditions are back, and rates have stabilized — and harder in others, because the qualifying rate still floors around 6%.
Read →SELLING
Preparing your Ottawa home for sale: a 30-day checklist
May 6, 2026 · 3 min read
Selling well in Ottawa in 2026 is mostly preparation. Pricing matters, marketing matters, but the homes that sell quickly and over ask are the ones the seller spent four weeks getting ready. Here's the schedule I use with clients.
Read →NEIGHBOURHOODS
Kanata neighbourhood guide: tech, families, and value
May 5, 2026 · 2 min read
Kanata isn't a single neighbourhood — it's a former municipality of around 110,000 people, spanning from Beaverbrook in the north to Bridlewood and Glen Cairn in the south. Each pocket has a distinct character and price band.
Read →MARKET UPDATES
Ottawa's spring 2026 market: what buyers and sellers need to know
May 4, 2026 · 2 min read
Every spring, the question I get most is some version of "is this the year it goes nuts again?" The honest answer for 2026 is no, and that's actually good news for almost everyone involved.
Read →