Pricing strategy in a shifting market

The three pricing strategies, and when each one wins in Ottawa

Pricing a home isn't about what you want for it. It's a tactical decision about how to use the asking price to drive the outcome. In Ottawa's 2026 balanced market, the wrong strategy can cost you 5% or more on final sale price. Here are the three approaches and when I use each.

Strategy 1: List low, hold offers

This is the strategy made famous in Toronto in 2017 and adopted heavily in Ottawa from 2020 to 2022. You price 5–10% below realistic market value, then hold offers for a week to let demand stack up.

When it works in 2026:

• Turn-key family detached, $700K to $1.2M, in school zones with consistent demand (Hopewell, Mutchmor, parts of Kanata)
• Unique product with no comparable inventory currently listed
• Spring market with depth of demand

When it backfires:

• Stale-feeling product
• Anything over $1.4M
• Condos in most current Ottawa pockets
• Late summer or winter

If you hold offers and only get one or two, you've essentially announced a discount price. You may transact at or below your list, not above. In 2026 I use this strategy on roughly one in four listings. In 2022 it was three in four.

Strategy 2: List at market

The default in 2026. You price at what comparable sales suggest the home is worth, plus a small negotiating buffer (typically 1–3%). Offers come in as they come; you negotiate each one or counter.

When it works:

• Most homes, most price points, most seasons
• Condos almost universally
• Suburban detached in Barrhaven, Orleans, Findlay Creek, Kanata

The advantage: you don't telegraph desperation, you don't cap your upside, and you can act quickly when a strong offer arrives.

I use this approach on roughly 60% of my listings in 2026.

Strategy 3: List high, negotiate down

Pricing 5–8% above comparable sales. Banking on the right buyer falling in love and negotiating only partway down, leaving you above market.

When it works:

• Truly unique product (waterfront on the Rideau, architecturally significant homes, period restored Edwardians in The Glebe)
• High-end pockets ($1.8M+) where buyer pools are small and emotional
• Slow seasons (mid-summer, winter) where you can afford 60+ days of marketing time

When it backfires constantly:

• Anything turn-key under $1.2M
• When the buyer pool is rate-sensitive
• When days on market start to compound

I use this on about 15% of my listings, and only when the seller and I have aligned on a longer expected marketing period.

How the buyer pool reads your price

This is the part most sellers miss. Buyers and their agents are watching:

• Days on market. After day 14, perceived value drops 3–5% in the buyer's mind regardless of objective price.
• Price reductions. Any cut over 3% signals weakness and invites lower offers.
• Withdrawn-and-relisted. Sophisticated buyers see this on MLS history. Don't do it.

If your strategy requires a price reduction within 30 days, your strategy was wrong from the start.

My pricing test

When I'm setting price with a seller, I ask three questions:

1. If three buyers walked in tomorrow, what would each be willing to pay? The number is the price the second buyer would pay — not the most enthusiastic, not the most reluctant. That's your true market.

2. What's the elasticity in this pocket? In Westboro the buyer pool is sophisticated and rate-sensitive — narrow elasticity. In Manotick the buyer pool is smaller and emotion-driven — wider elasticity.

3. What's the cost of being wrong? A $1.1M home that sits because it was priced at $1.18M often sells for $1.05M after three months. That's a $50,000 mistake for the seller.

The 2026 reality

Most sellers price 4–7% over the market and then negotiate down. Most buyers come in 4–7% under ask and negotiate up. The deals happen in the middle. List-at-market gets you to that middle the cleanest.

If you want a candid view on what your specific home should list at — including the comp set I'd use — that's a one-hour conversation. 613-262-6545 or fil@613realtor.ca.