1,600 Ottawa listings quit in September. Price against them.

Third month running, and the biggest

In August I showed you that about 1,300 Ottawa listings quit the market without selling, against 1,002 sales. I said I would rerun the arithmetic on the September release. OREB published it Monday.

September is the biggest exit month yet.

The arithmetic

You can redo this at your kitchen table. Active listings ended August at 4,496. September added 2,927 new listings. September sales were 1,010. If nothing left the market except by selling, Ottawa would have ended September with 4,496 plus 2,927 minus 1,010 equals 6,413 active listings.

OREB reports 4,813.

The gap is 1,600 listings that left without a sale. That is 1.6 unsold exits for every closed deal, up from 1.3 in August and 1.1 in July. Of everything that came off the market in September, 1,600 divided by 2,610 is 61% came off without a buyer.

Check the method against OREB's own figures. Active listings are up 7.1% from August, and 4,496 times 1.071 is 4,815, which matches. Sales over new listings is 1,010 divided by 2,927 is 34.5%, which is the number OREB prints. Same caveats as before. Active listings is a point in time count and new listings includes re-lists, so read 1,600 as 1,500 to 1,700.

Three months of quitting

July's reconstruction was about 1,500 exits, August's about 1,300, and now September's 1,600. That is roughly 4,400 listings that left the market without a sale since July 1. OREB's own three month sales total is 3,336. For every home that sold this summer, about 1.3 others were pulled, cancelled or allowed to expire.

OREB does not publish that number. The board does say the gap between homes coming on and homes selling widened in September, and that this was the lowest September sales-to-new-listings ratio and the highest September months of inventory in ten years.

Did the quitters come back?

This is what I told you to watch for in August, and I will be careful with it. New listings jumped 38.1% from August, to 2,927. The ten year median August to September increase is 12.9%. A normal September would have given us 2,119 times 1.129 is about 2,390. That leaves roughly 535 listings above the seasonal pattern.

Some of those are re-lists. I cannot tell you how many, because OREB does not split them out, and I will not pretend 535 is a measurement. What I can say is that sales were flat (up 0.8%) while the listings poured in. Whoever walked away in August, listings poured back in and buyers did not show up to meet them.

Prices are starting to answer

The average price was $685,640 and the median $625,000, both within a rounding error of August. That is the mix of homes sold talking. The benchmark, which holds the home constant, fell 2.2% from August to $623,500, the largest August to September drop in a series that starts in 2005. OREB adds that one month does not make a trend, and I agree. But in July and August the benchmark held while listings quit. In September it moved.

Homes sold at 97.5% of list, against 98.1% a year ago, and median days on market went from 22 to 27. Single-family benchmark is $705,100, down 3.0% on the month. Apartments are at 7.3 months of inventory with a benchmark of $380,800, down 6.1% on the year.

Scoring my own call

On September 6 I said 2026 would finish down 6% to 8% on sales and asked you to hold me to it. Year to date is 10,288, down 6.9%. Backing out last year, 10,288 divided by 0.931 is about 11,050 sales through September 2025. If 2025 finished near 13,700 (the 13,526 OREB reported for 2024, plus the 1.3% growth OREB reported for 2025), the last three months of 2025 were about 2,650.

For the year to land at down 6%, October to December needs about 2,590 sales, 2% below last year. For down 8%, about 2,320, which is 13% below. Flat finishes the year down 5.6%. So the call survives if the fourth quarter lands between 2% and 13% under last year. September was 6.6% under. I am keeping it.

If you are listing this month

Your competition is the 2,927 new listings plus the roughly 4,400 that came off since July, some of which will come back with a new price and a showing history. The calendar does not fix a price, and buyers know that the listings that have been around are often the best deal in the city.

OREB notes new listings have fallen in both October and November in each of the past ten years. That helps you only if the supply dries up before the ratio gets worse. At 34.5 sales for every 100 new listings, price off the last 30 days of sold comparables, not the August numbers.

I sell houses. I do not give mortgage, tax or legal advice, so questions about carrying costs or capital gains belong with your lender, accountant or lawyer.

If you are thinking about listing and want to know how many homes like yours quit this summer, call me at 613-262-6545 or email fil@613realtor.ca. I will pull the listing history with you on the line, and you can see what is on the market now beforehand.