Ottawa real estate market update — Q2 2026

Where the Ottawa market actually sits right now

If you've been refreshing OREB releases the way I do, the headline of Q2 2026 is simple: balanced, not boring. May sales hit 1,616 units across the OREB territory, down 10.6% from a year earlier, while the average sale price came in at $721,270 — about 1% softer year over year. April logged $712,184 average and 1,336 sales. Neither set of numbers screams panic or party. They describe a market that's working through a normal spring, with sales-to-new-listings around 48% and roughly three months of inventory.

For buyers, that's the most negotiable spring we've had in five years. For sellers, it means the asking price is doing real work — buyers are no longer paying just because a sign went up.

What the numbers actually mean

The 3.0 months of inventory figure is the one to pay attention to. Anything under 4 months in Ottawa is still tilted toward sellers, but only marginally. Compare that to spring 2022, when we were running at less than a month of inventory and multiple offers were the norm on anything under $800,000. We are nowhere near that dynamic in 2026.

Single-family detached prices are essentially flat year over year. Townhouses and condo apartments have given back a bit more — call it 1–3% depending on the pocket. That's consistent with what I'm seeing on the ground: condos in Centretown and on Carling are sitting longer, while three-bed detached homes in Findlay Creek, Riverside South, and parts of Orleans are still moving in two to three weeks if priced honestly.

Where the demand is concentrated

Three pockets are outperforming the broader average in 2026:

• East-end family product — Avalon, Chapel Hill South, and Convent Glen are seeing healthy showing counts, especially anything backing onto greenspace.
• Kanata semis and townhouses under $700K — driven by tech sector hiring at Kanata North and steady federal relocations.
• Walkable infill in Hintonburg, Westboro, and Old Ottawa South — anything turn-key under $1.1M still attracts multiple looks.

What's slower? Higher-end condos downtown, anything that needs work over $850K, and oversized estate homes in the rural belt where buyer pools are small and rate-sensitive.

What's driving the balance

Two things keep this from being a buyer's market outright: the BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10, mortgage rates are stable in the high-3s to low-4s for fixed terms, and the federal return-to-office mandate is pulling some buyers back into the urban core. That last factor is real — I've written three deals in the last month where the buyer's RTO schedule was the reason they pulled the trigger.

On the supply side, sellers who tested the market in March at aspirational prices have largely either adjusted or pulled the listing. New listings in May rose modestly, but the panicked overhang some forecasters predicted hasn't materialized.

What to do with this information

If you're buying, this is a window to negotiate without being aggressive. Most sellers will entertain a clean offer 2–4% below ask if your conditions are reasonable and you're financing-ready. If you're selling, list at market — not aspirational — and use the first two weeks of exposure as your real read.

If you're sitting on the fence about timing, my view: the second half of 2026 looks more like Q2 than dramatically different. The BoC's bias is to hold. Inventory will rise slightly through July and ease through August. Prices probably move sideways within a 2% band.

Want a read on your specific neighbourhood or building? I'd rather have a 15-minute conversation than send you another generic market report. Reach me at 613-262-6545 or fil@613realtor.ca.