Where Ottawa's Market Sits Before the July 15 Rate Decision

Ottawa's spring market is behind us and the summer stretch is officially underway. Before you read too much into any single week of activity, it helps to look at the last full month of hard data we have. The May numbers from the Ottawa Real Estate Board landed in early June, and the next Bank of Canada rate decision is set for July 15. Put those two together and you get a fairly clear read on where we sit right now.

Short version: the market is balanced, prices are holding, and nobody should be waiting for a dramatic move in either direction.

Sales are down, but inventory is the real story

Ottawa Realtors sold 1,616 homes in May. That is up from 1,336 in April, which is the seasonal lift you expect this time of year. It is also down 10.6% from May of last year, and that year-over-year softness has been the running theme of 2026 so far. Year to date we are sitting at 5,453 sales, down 6.3% from the same stretch in 2025.

Fewer sales is not the number I would fixate on though. The one that actually shapes how you should price or shop is inventory. Active listings hit 4,917 in May, up 12.2% from a year ago and up from 4,535 in April. Months of inventory came in at 3.0. That is textbook balanced territory, but it is a very different backdrop than the tight, seller-favoured spring we had a few years back. The sales-to-new-listings ratio climbed to 48.2% from 41.0% in April, which tells me demand is keeping reasonable pace with new supply. Balanced, not booming.

Prices are stable, but the segments have split

Here is where the citywide averages start to mislead people. The average residential sale price in May was $721,270, down less than a percent from last year. The median was $660,000, off 1.6%. Flat, basically. If you stopped reading there you would think every property type is behaving the same way. They are not.

Single-family homes are carrying the market. The benchmark price landed at $723,800, up 0.9% from April and slightly ahead of last year, and the median single-family price actually rose 1.3% to $800,000. Demand for detached homes with a yard has not gone anywhere.

Townhomes have cooled off. Sales fell 14.3% year over year in May and the benchmark slipped to $557,500, down 3.2% from last May. Earlier in the year townhomes were holding up better than this, so May was a real shift worth watching.

Apartments remain the softest corner of the market. The benchmark sits at $385,500, down 6.7% from a year ago, with 4.8 months of inventory against 2.7 for both single-family and townhomes. Some of that is the same investor pullback and higher carrying costs weighing on condos in Toronto, but a lot of it is just local supply. If you are buying a condo right now, you have time and choice on your side.

The July 15 rate decision: don't hold your breath

The Bank of Canada has now held its policy rate at 2.25% five decisions in a row, most recently on June 10. The next announcement is July 15, and both the bond market and the economists on the C.D. Howe monetary policy council are lined up expecting another hold.

I know a lot of buyers are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop before they move. My honest take: that is a weak strategy in this market. The Bank has signalled it is comfortable holding, so you are not likely to get a rate-cut windfall in the next few months. What you do get right now is stability, which matters more than people give it credit for. You can budget against a 2.25% policy rate. You can shop with elevated inventory and real negotiating room. Waiting for a cut that may not come, in a market where prices are flat, mostly just costs you time.

What this means if you are buying or selling

If you are selling, the elevated inventory is your competition and pricing is everything. A balanced market with 4,917 active listings does not forgive an ambitious asking price the way a tight market does. Homes that are priced to the comparable sales are moving. Homes that are priced to what the neighbour got two years ago are sitting. Segment matters too. A well-priced single-family home in a strong pocket still draws real attention, while townhome and condo sellers need to be sharper on price and presentation. If you want a straight read on what your specific property should list at, that is exactly the kind of analysis I do before we ever put a sign on the lawn.

If you are buying, you have more leverage than you have had in a while, especially in the townhome and condo segments. You can browse what is currently listed and take your time. Detached buyers still need to move decisively on the good ones, but even there the frenzy is gone. Neighbourhood is doing a lot of the work in this market, so it pays to look locally. Central Ottawa actually posted a 13.5% year-over-year jump in sales in May, while the west end stayed busy. If you have a target area in mind, whether that is Kanata or Barrhaven, the local numbers can look quite different from the citywide headline.

Bottom line

Ottawa is a balanced market that is quietly favouring buyers in the condo and townhome segments while single-family homes hold their ground. Prices are flat, inventory is up, and the July 15 rate decision is very likely to be another hold. None of that calls for panic in either direction. It calls for pricing discipline if you are selling and patience with a plan if you are buying.

If you want to talk through where your home or your next purchase fits into these numbers, reach out. Call or text me at 613-262-6545, or email fil@613realtor.ca, and we will build a plan around the market as it actually is, not the market people remember from 2021.