Ottawa new home prices rose 1.0%. Half is last year's dip

A third Ottawa price number

I have already put two Ottawa price indexes side by side in this space: OREB's resale benchmark and the Teranet repeat sales index, which disagreed in September. Statistics Canada publishes a third one that gets almost no attention in resale conversations. It is the New Housing Price Index, and the September reading for Ottawa-Gatineau (Ontario part) is out.

The headline is easy to write. Ottawa new home prices are up 1.0% on a year ago. OREB's resale benchmark is down 0.3%. Builders are winning, resale is losing, end of story. Except the arithmetic says otherwise, and I think it is worth showing.

What this index actually measures

The NHPI tracks what builders charge for a fixed set of new homes with the same specs month to month. It is not a resale index. It also tells you nothing about how many new homes are selling, only what the ones that do sell are priced at. I have not checked how StatCan treats builder incentives that sit outside the sticker price, so I will not claim anything about them.

The base is December 2016 equals 100. For Ottawa, the total (house and land) index read 162.3 in September 2026 and 160.7 in September 2025. That is 162.3 divided by 160.7, minus 1, which is +1.0%. House only went from 167.9 to 169.9, up 1.2%. Land only went from 135.2 to 135.4, up 0.1%. Whatever is happening is in the structure, not the dirt.

Half of that 1.0% is last year's dip

Here are the last few months of the total index, straight from StatCan's table: 162.2 in June, 161.5 in July, 161.1 in August, 162.3 in September. And a year earlier: 161.8 in August 2025, then 160.7 in September 2025.

Two things moved the year over year number. This September the index rose 0.7% on August (162.3 divided by 161.1, minus 1, is +0.74%). And last September the index had fallen 0.7% on its own August (160.7 divided by 161.8, minus 1, is a drop of 0.68%). When that weak month drops out of the comparison, the year over year number gets a free lift.

You can check it. In August the year over year reading was 161.1 divided by 161.8, minus 1, which is negative 0.4%. In September it is positive 1.0%. That is a swing of 1.4 points. This month's gain is 0.74 of it. Last year's drop leaving the window is 0.68 of it. They add to 1.42. About half of the swing is a better month now, and half is a worse month a year ago that is no longer in the math.

The index is also not at a high. The best reading in the 26 months I pulled was 164.4 in December 2024. September sits 1.3% below that (162.3 divided by 164.4, minus 1). It is 1.2% above the low of 160.4 in December 2025.

Why I would not stack it against resale

OREB's September composite benchmark is $623,500, down 0.3% on the year and down 2.2% on August. Single family is down 0.1%, townhouses down 2.2% and apartments down 6.1%. The builder index has no property type split for Ottawa, so the cleanest comparison is the composite against the total, a gap of 1.3 points (+1.0 minus negative 0.3).

I would not read that gap as buyers preferring new over resale. A fixed spec new home priced by a builder reacts slowly, because builders hold prices and compete in other ways. A resale benchmark reprices each month as sellers see showings. A builder sitting on a price while the resale market softens is the usual lag, not a sign of strength. The supply side of this is in my September starts post.

What I would take from it

If you are a buyer comparing a new townhouse against a resale one, the useful number is the resale townhouse benchmark of $546,500, down 2.2% on the year, because that is the price your alternative is moving at. A builder's list price rising 1.0% while resale townhouses fall 2.2% is a 3.2 point gap you can use in the conversation. Ask the builder what has changed in the price, the lot, the finishes and the closing credits, and ask what the resale next door would sell for.

If you are a seller, the new home index is not your comparison. Your buyer is shopping resale against resale, and the inventory numbers from October are the pressure that matters for your listing.

How I will score this

October's reading has no base effect, because the index was 160.7 in both September and October of 2025. If the October index holds at 162.3, the year over year reading stays at +1.0%. If it slips back to 161.1 like August, it falls to +0.2% (161.1 divided by 160.7, minus 1). I would treat anything above 162.3 as new strength, and anything at or below 161.1 as September having been a one month bounce. StatCan publishes October in November.

I sell houses. I do not arrange mortgages and I do not give tax or legal advice, so anything about financing a new build or the HST on it belongs with your lender, accountant or lawyer.

If you are weighing a new build against a resale and want the numbers run on the two actual properties, call me at 613-262-6545 or email fil@613realtor.ca and we can build the comparison together.