Ottawa's August looked like 2016. Only townhouses are looser.

A yardstick I had not used yet

Every August post I have written this year compares Ottawa to last August or to a ten year average. Both are fair. But OREB's August package also prints a 2016 column, and 2016 is the last August when Ottawa carried months of inventory this high. Citywide it was 4.6 then. It is 4.5 now.

So the headline reads "same as 2016." I wanted to know whether every segment is the same as 2016, or whether the average is hiding something.

Citywide, 2026 is 2016 with less of everything

OREB's own comparison columns, August 2026 against August 2016: sales of 1,002, down 21.4%. Active listings of 4,496, down 22.6%. New listings of 2,119, up 2.7%. Sales to new listings of 47.3% against 61.7%. Median days on market of 29 against 42. Average price up 77.6%.

Months of inventory matches because stock and sales both fell about 22%. A smaller board, selling at a slower pace, gives you the same ratio. That is a coincidence of division, not proof of similar conditions.

Segment by segment

OREB prints percentage changes against 2016, so you can back out the 2016 counts yourself. Take the 2026 figure and divide by one plus the change.

Check the formula on single-family homes first. Active listings of 2,143, down 34.4%, gives 2,143 divided by 0.656, or 3,267 listings in 2016. Sales of 535, down 26.3%, gives 535 divided by 0.737, or 726. Then 3,267 divided by 726 is 4.5 months. OREB prints 4.5 for 2016. The method works.

Now all three segments, 2016 against today:

Single-family went from 4.5 months to 4.0. Tighter than 2016.

Apartments went from 7.1 months (1,344 listings over 188 sales) to 6.3 (851 over 136). Still the loosest segment in the city, but looser still in 2016.

Townhouses went from 3.1 months (1,019 listings over 332 sales) to 4.1 (1,262 over 310). Sales are down only 6.6% from 2016. Active listings are up 23.8%.

Townhouses are the only segment where the shelf is fuller than it was in 2016, and the only segment where the citywide "same as 2016" label is wrong.

How many listings is that

Hold each segment to its own 2016 months of inventory and apply it to today's sales pace.

Townhouses: 3.07 months times 310 sales is 952 listings. Actual is 1,262. That is 310 more than the 2016 ratio implies, which works out to exactly one extra month of townhouse sales sitting on the market.

Single-family: 4.5 times 535 is 2,408. Actual is 2,143, so 265 fewer.

Apartments: 7.15 times 136 is 972. Actual is 851, so 121 fewer.

Add the three. Actual is 4,256 listings. The 2016 ratios imply 4,332. The city as a whole is 76 listings under its 2016 equivalent, which is why the aggregate looks unremarkable. The 310 townhouse surplus is being cancelled out by shortfalls in the other two segments. The three types do not sum to the citywide total, since OREB reports other categories, so treat this as a segment check and not a reconciliation.

What the comparison does not say

It does not say Ottawa should price like 2016. The average price is up 77.6% since then. Working it backward, $688,253 divided by 1.776 is about $387,500. The same 4.5 months of inventory now asks a buyer to carry a house costing far more, on a mortgage that costs what it costs.

It also does not say sellers are in trouble in two of three segments. Homes that sell are selling faster than in 2016 in every category. Single-family median days on market is 26 against 40. Townhouses 29 against 36. Apartments 42 against 59.5.

Fast sales on a smaller board, with new listings flat on 2016 (up 2.7%) and sales down 21.4%, suggests more listings are leaving without selling than a decade ago. That is an inference, not a measurement, and I put a number on it last month.

What I would do with it

If you own a townhouse, you are not competing with the city. You are competing with roughly a month of extra supply that the other two segments do not have, in a segment where the benchmark is down 4.0% on the year. I wrote about why townhouse inventory looked tight when it was not in August. The 2016 comparison says the overhang is real, not a statistical artifact.

If you own a single-family home, the shelf is 265 listings thinner than 2016 would predict. That is the best relative position in the city, even with sales down 16.3% on the year. It is not a reason to test a price the comps will not carry.

If you are buying a condo, 6.3 months and 42 days on market are real leverage, but August 2016 was looser still, so do not expect a 2016 discount. The listing history of the specific unit tells you more than the segment average does.

What would prove me wrong

OREB's September package should land this week. If townhouse months of inventory drops below 3.5, August was a blip and the overhang is clearing. If it sits at 4.0 or above while single-family stays under its 2016 level, the pattern holds. I will check this post against the release and say so either way.

I sell houses. I do not give mortgage, tax or legal advice, so those questions belong with your lender, accountant or lawyer. If you want the townhouse math run on your complex, or the single-family version for your street, call me at 613-262-6545 or email fil@613realtor.ca. Fifteen minutes with the actual listings open beats another citywide average, and you can always see what is on the market right now first.