Ottawa's mid-2026 market: what to watch into summer

Halfway through 2026, here's where Ottawa actually stands

We're at the end of June, the spring market is in the books, and the first real batch of year-to-date numbers tells a cleaner story than any single month does. Through May, 5,453 homes have sold across the OREB territory. That's down 6.3% from the same stretch of 2025. New listings are up 5.4% to 12,284, and average active inventory is running close to 15% higher than a year ago. The year-to-date average price sits at $694,539, off 0.6%, with the median at $639,000, down 1.7%.

Strip away the monthly noise and that's the whole 2026 market in one paragraph. Fewer sales, more choice, prices holding within a percentage point of last year. Balanced, with the leverage tilting slightly toward buyers who do their homework. If you read my Q2 update a couple of weeks back, none of this contradicts it. It just confirms the pattern is the trend, not a one-month blip.

The citywide average is the number to stop quoting

The $721,270 average from May makes for a tidy headline, but it hides more than it tells. Ottawa is not moving as one market in 2026. The three main property types are doing genuinely different things, and if you average them together you get a figure that describes none of them.

Here's the split that actually matters.

Single-family is carrying the whole thing

Detached homes are the resilient segment, full stop. May logged 904 single-family sales, down 8.6% year over year on volume, but the HPI benchmark price came in at $723,800, up 0.9% from April and 0.3% above last May. The median single-family price actually rose 1.3% to an even $800,000. Months of inventory sits at 2.7, which is still tilted toward sellers.

What I see on the ground matches the data. Turn-key three- and four-bedroom detached in established family pockets is the one product type where a well-priced listing still moves in two to three weeks. Barrhaven, Orleans, and Kanata suburban detached are doing the heavy lifting on volume.

Townhomes cooled off, and that's new

This is the segment that shifted in the spring data. Earlier in the year townhomes were holding up comparatively well. May reversed it. Townhouse sales fell 14.3% year over year, dragging year-to-date townhome sales 2.8% below 2025. The benchmark price held up better than the volume did, at $557,500, down 0.4% from April and 3.2% from last May. Months of inventory is 2.7, same as detached on paper, but absorption has clearly softened.

My read: townhomes were the affordability release valve when rates were higher, and as detached carrying costs eased with the rate cuts of late 2025, some of that demand walked back up to detached. If you're selling a townhome this summer, you're competing harder than you were in March. Price it to the last 30 days of comparable sales, not to what the unit down the street listed at in February.

Apartments are the soft spot, and it's not subtle

Condo apartments remain the most pressured part of the Ottawa market. May saw 203 apartment sales, down 12.1% year over year, with the benchmark price at $385,500, down 6.7% from last May. Months of inventory is 4.8, which is a buyer's market by any Ottawa standard.

This isn't only an Ottawa story. Toronto's condo sector is dealing with the same weak investor demand and higher carrying costs. But the local context matters: CMHC's latest construction data shows rental projects made up 61% of new starts, and apartments make up most of what's currently under construction. That supply pipeline lands on the resale apartment market over the next two years. If you're an investor underwriting an Ottawa condo today, run your numbers assuming flat-to-soft pricing and real competition for tenants. The math that worked in 2021 does not work in 2026.

Geography is doing more than the property-type split

The regional tables are where it gets interesting. Ottawa Centre recorded sales up 13.5% from last May, with prices higher year over year too. After a soft start to the year, the central market is the clearest positive signal in the data. I'd put a chunk of that down to the federal return-to-office pull bringing buyers back toward the core, which lines up with what I argued in my rate-and-demand breakdown.

The west end stayed busy. Ottawa Suburb West posted the highest sales total and the lowest months of inventory, so it's absorbing supply faster than anywhere, even if prices there ran a touch below last May. Rural East is the other end of the spectrum, carrying the highest inventory and the slowest absorption. Smaller buyer pools, more rate sensitivity, longer marketing times. None of that is a surprise, but it's a reminder that "the Ottawa market" is really a dozen local markets wearing one average.

The July 15 question

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10, the fifth consecutive hold. The next decision lands July 15, and the market is split on hold versus a cut. Governing Council has been clear that uncertainty is unusually high and the risks could move either way, so I wouldn't bet the house on either outcome.

Here's the part that matters for buyers and sellers: even a 25-basis-point cut barely moves the monthly payment. On a $700,000 mortgage you're talking roughly $90 a month. That's not nothing, but it's not the thing that decides whether you buy. What a cut would actually do is help the marginal buyer squeak past the stress test, which adds a little demand at the entry level. A hold changes nothing about the shape of the market we're already in.

What I'd do right now

If you're buying, this is the most negotiable summer Ottawa has seen in years, especially in townhomes and condos. A clean, financing-ready offer a few points under ask gets taken seriously on anything that's been sitting. Detached in a strong school zone is the exception, so pick your battles.

If you're selling, the citywide average is not your friend. Price to your specific property type and your specific pocket using the last month of sold data. Single-family sellers still have leverage. Townhome and condo sellers need to be sharp on price and sharp on presentation, because the buyer has options and knows it.

And if you're trying to time the July 15 decision, don't. The difference between buying now and buying after the announcement is measured in a few dollars of monthly payment, not in market direction.

Want a straight read on where your property type and neighbourhood actually sit at the halfway mark, not the citywide blur? That's a quick call. Reach me at 613-262-6545 or fil@613realtor.ca and I'll pull the numbers that match your situation.