I said Westboro's train opens early 2027. I was wrong.

I gave you a date and it was wrong

In August I wrote that Westboro's LRT station was heading for an early 2027 opening. That was wrong when I published it. The date came from a July 2025 article, and the city had already moved it in March 2026. I should have caught that, and I would rather correct it here than leave it sitting in the 1,441 units post.

Here is the corrected record, with the arithmetic.

What the city has actually said

In September 2025, councillors were told the west extension would be handed from the builder to the city around the end of 2026, with opening preparations in the first quarter of 2027. On March 12, 2026, the transit committee heard that handover had slipped to the second quarter of 2027, about six months later than the September 2025 plan, and that opening preparations had moved to the third quarter of 2027, which is July to September.

Q1 to Q3 is two quarters. That is a six month slip, and it happened before the weather got involved.

Then it rained

On July 1, more than 100 millimetres of rain fell on Ottawa, with some west end areas reportedly getting 150 or more. Several stations under construction between New Orchard and Moodie flooded. The city's director of rail construction said the Moodie end took the worst of it and that ballast and track were hit hard: "not likely that much will be salvaged."

On August 25, OC Transpo's general manager told a Kanata town hall that Moodie station will need a redesign instead of a like for like rebuild. He expected a damage report in mid September, and I could not find it in any coverage this morning. An outside consultant is reviewing the whole schedule, including a staged opening, with an update due in early 2027. In July the transit committee chair told CBC the city was eyeing a late 2027 launch and called a delay fairly certain.

Westboro's piece is better than Moodie's. Westboro station sits on the Line 1 branch toward Algonquin, not on the Moodie spur that flooded. In July a train ran west of Tunney's Pasture to Algonquin for the first time, and staff said they felt more confident about that stretch opening even if Moodie could not. A staged opening is an option under study. It is not a schedule.

My read: Q3 2027 was the optimistic case in March and nothing since has helped it. Plan on late 2027 and treat anything earlier as a bonus. That is my judgment, not a city date.

What September did to the rest of my August call

OREB's September numbers are out, so I can score the other half of that post. Same segments, July versus September.

Single-family benchmark: up 0.6 per cent year over year in July, down 0.1 per cent now, at $705,100. Months of inventory went from 3.2 to 4.4. The benchmark fell 3.0 per cent in one month, from $726,700 in August. Check it: 705,100 divided by 726,700 is 0.9703.

Apartments: benchmark down 5.2 per cent in July, down 6.1 per cent now. Inventory went from 5.4 to 7.3 months, and sales to new listings fell from 41.0 to 27.0 per cent. September apartment sales were 121, down 24.8 per cent.

Townhouses went the other way. Benchmark down 5.1 per cent in July, down 2.2 per cent now. I did not expect that, and it is the one segment where my August tone was too gloomy.

By submarket, Ottawa Centre went from 5.6 to 6.8 months and Ottawa Suburb West from 3.0 to 3.7. The gap between them widened from 2.6 months to 3.1 (6.8 minus 3.7). I still cannot confirm which of the two OREB files Westboro addresses under, so read both.

Citywide, the composite benchmark fell 2.2 per cent from August, which OREB says is the largest August to September drop in a series that starts in 2005. That is one month. It could be a blip. I would not build a thesis on it, and I would not ignore it either.

So how did "buy the house, be careful with the tower" hold up? The first half survives in relative terms, but "the only segment with a benchmark gain" is no longer true. The second half got stronger. Apartments are at 7.3 months, and the proposed Westboro pipeline is 1,441 units. Citywide resale apartment sales run about 151 a month this year (1,359 over nine months). 1,441 divided by 151 is 9.5 months of every resale apartment sale in all of Ottawa. That is scale only, not a forecast. The units arrive over years, some will not be built, and new units against MLS resale sales is not apples to apples.

What I would do with it

If you own a Westboro house, price off sold comps from the last 60 days, not August. A 3.0 per cent monthly move makes an early August sale stale.

If you own a condo, do not price in a station that has no date. If you are buying one, do not pay a transit premium for it. The preconstruction appraisal math I ran in the condo appraisal gap post looks worse with a train date that has now slipped twice.

Browse what is listed in Westboro today and look at how long the condos have sat.

The next score on my train call is the consultant's schedule review in early 2027. The next score on the market half is OREB's October release in early November. If apartments are still above six months of inventory and the single-family benchmark is still negative year over year, I will say so here.

Thinking about a Westboro sale or purchase and want the comps for your street instead of the citywide average? Call me at 613-262-6545 or send a note to fil@613realtor.ca.