Ottawa's June Market: One Average Price, Three Different Stories

The June numbers from the Ottawa Real Estate Board are in, and if you only read the headline you would think prices are climbing again. Average sale price up 1.3% from last year. That sounds like a market heating back up. It isn't. Dig one layer down and June was three different markets wearing one number.

The timing matters too, because the Bank of Canada meets Wednesday. So this is a good moment to look at what the data actually says before the rate headlines take over the week.

Short version: Ottawa is balanced, houses are holding, condos are not, and the rate cut a lot of buyers are still waiting for may not be coming.

The average price is hiding the story

June's average residential sale price was $733,648, up 1.3% from June 2025. The median told a different story at $655,000, down 1.3%. When the average rises and the median falls, that usually means the mix of what sold changed, not that everything got more expensive.

The cleaner number is the MLS Home Price Index, which adjusts for that mix. The composite benchmark was down 1.3% year over year. So the honest read on Ottawa pricing is slightly down, not up. Anyone listing off the strength of that average-price headline is going to be disappointed when the offers come in.

Three property types, three markets

Here is where June gets interesting. Break the benchmark down by type and the spread is wide.

Single-family homes held their ground. The benchmark was down just 0.7% and there were only 2.8 months of inventory. That is still a tight, functioning market for houses.

Townhomes are softening. The benchmark was down 3.9%, and active townhome listings jumped 27.6% from last June. That is a lot of new competition for sellers, and it pushed months of inventory to 3.2.

Apartments and condos are the soft spot. The benchmark was down 6.0% and there were 5.3 months of inventory. That is buyer's-market territory in that segment while houses are still balanced. One city, two completely different negotiating positions depending on what you own or want to buy.

Balanced does not mean soft

With inventory up and sales down 4.9% year over year to 1,518 homes, you would expect sellers to be getting hammered on price. They are not, at least not the ones pricing correctly.

The sale-to-list ratio held at 98.5% in June, exactly where it was a year earlier. Homes that sold went for about 98.5 cents on every listed dollar. Median days on market crept up from 19 to 22. That is a slightly slower, more patient market, not a fire sale. The sales-to-new-listings ratio landed at 48.8% and months of inventory sat at 3.3, up from 2.8 last June. Textbook balanced.

The message for sellers is old but it keeps being true. Price it right and you sell near ask in about three weeks. Price it on 2021 nostalgia and you become the stale listing that makes the correctly priced house down the street look like a bargain.

About Wednesday

The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision on July 15. The overnight rate has sat at 2.25% since the Bank started holding last October, and June made five holds in a row. Almost everyone expects a sixth on Wednesday.

Here is the part worth sitting with. A lot of Ottawa buyers are parked on the sidelines waiting for rate cuts to make payments cheaper. The forecasters are not calling for cuts. The C.D. Howe Institute's monetary policy council is recommending the Bank hold at 2.25% for the next six months and then raise to 2.5% by the middle of next year. If that is even close to right, the next move in your mortgage math is up, not down.

I am not telling anyone to rush. I am saying the wait-for-cheaper-rates plan is a bet against what the people who forecast this for a living currently expect. Waiting has a cost, and right now that cost is real.

If you are buying or selling

If you are buying a house, you are shopping in a balanced market with more choice than you had a year ago and no rate rescue on the horizon. That is a reasonable time to negotiate hard on a specific property instead of waiting on the whole market to turn.

If you are buying a condo or townhome, you have leverage. Five-plus months of inventory in the apartment segment means you can be picky and firm on price. Browse what's listed and you will see the selection is deep right now.

If you are selling a condo or townhome, price is the whole game. You are competing with a lot of similar units and the buyer knows it. If you are selling a single-family home, you are in the strongest position in the city, but remember the 98.5% sale-to-list number is an average of homes priced properly, not a promise.

Two related reads if you want to go deeper: my breakdown of the sale-to-list ratio and what it actually tells you, and the condo investing reality check for anyone eyeing that soft apartment segment.

Bottom line

June was a balanced month pretending to be a rising one. Houses are holding, townhomes are softening, condos are genuinely a buyer's market, and Wednesday's rate decision is very likely another hold with no cuts in sight. None of that is a reason to panic. It is a reason to make decisions on the actual numbers in your segment instead of the citywide headline.

If you want to know where your specific home or your next purchase sits inside these numbers, let's talk it through. Text or call me at 613-262-6545, or email fil@613realtor.ca, and we will build the plan around the market that exists this week, not the one from the peak.