Journal
Notes on the Ottawa market.
Market letters, buying & selling guides, neighbourhood notes, investor and commercial analysis.
BUYING
Fixed rates jumped. The variable discount is now 79 points.
Sep 15, 2026 · 5 min read
The five-year Government of Canada yield jumped 21 basis points in four days and lenders repriced fixed mortgages. The variable discount is now 79 points. It takes three Bank of Canada hikes to erase it.
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Ottawa's school boundary overhaul was cancelled. Check the map.
Sep 8, 2026 · 5 min read
The map that would have moved 11,000 Ottawa kids was cancelled last October. Listings never got the memo. What actually changed on September 1, and the ten-minute check before you write an offer.
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Ottawa buyers can't bridge a house that hasn't sold
Sep 1, 2026 · 5 min read
Every move-up seller says the same thing: we'll buy first and bridge it. Bridge financing does not exist until your sale is firm. That one word decides the whole sequence.
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The bond market just shrank what Ottawa buyers can borrow
Aug 25, 2026 · 5 min read
The five-year bond yield hit a twelve-month high and lenders raised fixed rates. Your monthly payment moved $35. Your approval moved $7,500. Those are not the same number.
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Ottawa's best buy this fall already failed to sell once
Aug 18, 2026 · 5 min read
Only about 18% of the Ottawa homes available in July actually sold. The rest are still owned by people who wanted out. That is the inventory worth your time this fall.
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The appraisal gap nobody warns Ottawa condo buyers about
Aug 11, 2026 · 6 min read
Ottawa apartments are down 5.2% in a year and lenders noticed. If the appraisal lands under your purchase price, the shortfall is yours in cash. Here is what it costs.
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Ottawa new builds: $130K in HST relief, most of it not law
Aug 4, 2026 · 5 min read
Sales centres are quoting $130,000 in HST relief on new builds. Only $50,000 of it is actually law, and on a $500,000 Ottawa condo the real number is $25,000. Here is what you can bank and what you cannot.
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New build in Ottawa? You have 45 days to protect your deposit
Jul 28, 2026 · 6 min read
A rule that took effect on April 1 puts a 45-day clock on every new freehold purchase agreement in Ontario. Nobody at the sales centre starts it for you, and the thing on the line is your deposit protection.
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Price is the last lever: an Ottawa buyer's negotiation playbook
Jul 21, 2026 · 5 min read
Everyone thinks negotiating means grinding the price. In a market where correctly priced homes still fetch 98.5% of ask, price is the last lever. Here's where the real negotiation happens, segment by segment.
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Buying your first Ottawa condo in 2026: the soft market and the document that decides it
Jul 14, 2026 · 5 min read
Ottawa's condo segment is the softest in the city right now, and for once that is the buyer's advantage rather than a warning. Apartments are off about 6% year over year with 5.3 months of supply, the most buyer-friendly reading in Ottawa. Here is how to shop your first one, and why the status certificate is the document that actually decides the deal.
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The first-time buyer GST rebate: what it's worth in Ottawa
Jul 7, 2026 · 5 min read
The feds made the GST disappear on new homes for first-time buyers, up to $50,000 back. In Ottawa, where most new-build product sits under $1 million, that's usually the full ride. The catch: it does nothing for resale.
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Stacking the FHSA and HBP for your Ottawa down payment
Jun 30, 2026 · 5 min read
The FHSA and HBP aren't either-or. Stacked, an Ottawa couple can assemble up to $200,000 of tax-advantaged down payment, and the 2026 repayment rules just got friendlier. Here's the playbook.
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Home inspection: the 12 things to look for in Ottawa homes
Jun 9, 2026 · 3 min read
Ottawa's housing stock spans pre-Confederation stone homes in the village of Manotick, post-war bungalows in Carlington, 1980s vinyl-sided detached in Kanata, and brand-new builds in Riverside South.
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Pre-approval vs pre-qualification: what Ottawa lenders actually mean
Jun 2, 2026 · 3 min read
I had a client lose a Westboro semi last month because they brought a "pre-approval" to the offer table that was actually a pre-qualification.
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Closing costs in Ontario explained, line by line
May 20, 2026 · 3 min read
If you're buying in Ottawa, "closing costs" is the line that ambushes more first-time buyers than any other. Let me walk through every cost, what it actually pays for, and what you'll see on a $700,000 purchase.
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How much home can you afford in Ottawa in 2026?
May 15, 2026 · 3 min read
The affordability question gets asked at every coffee, and the answer is always: it depends. But the inputs are not mysterious. Let me walk through how an Ottawa lender actually decides what you can borrow in 2026, with real numbers.
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First-time home buyer's complete guide to Ottawa
May 8, 2026 · 3 min read
Buying your first home in Ottawa in 2026 is easier than it was in 2022 in some ways — there's actual inventory, conditions are back, and rates have stabilized — and harder in others, because the qualifying rate still floors around 6%.
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